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UFA Frenzy: Fantasy Fallout

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altThe Vancouver Canucks brought the home cooking, Darryl Sutter provided the comedy, and the Ottawa Senators hosted the fireworks as NHL General Managers looking to bolster their rosters celebrated Canada Day in (for the most part) usual fashion.

While there weren't any 50 million dollar contracts handed out, Free Agent Frenzy was chock full of deals as Sergei Gonchar, Anton Volchenkov, Dan Hamhuis, Alex Tanguay, Chris Mason, and even Olli Jokinen found new (or old) homes.

With that, here are some of the fantasy hockey implications of Thursday's signings.

Sergei Gonchar (Ottawa Senators - 3 years, $16.5 million)

Gonchar is one of the NHL's best offensive defensemen but has struggled with injuries the past few years.  He allegedly turned down an offer from the Penguins to stay in Pittsburgh and because the Senators don't have the offensive weapons the Pens do it should be assumed that Gonchar's numbers may dip slightly playing in Canada's capital.  That being said, Gonchar is still an elite play at the defense position and if he stays helathy will continue to be a boon for fantasy owners. 

Others affected: Anyone playing on the Senators powerplay will be postively affected by Gonchar's presence.  Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Alex Kovalev in particular should see a boost in points.  On the back-end, Gonchar will be a good tutor for Erik Karlsson who is expected to be the power-play quarterback of the future.  In Pittsburgh, the Penguins powerplay was only the 19th best in the league which had a lot to do with a poor start and the absense of Gonchar due to injuries.  Kris Letang should be ready to take the reigns on the PP and 2010-11 could be a breakout season for the young defenseman.

Dan Hamhuis (Vancouver Canucks - 6 years, $27 million)

altDespite being offered more money and a longer term to play elsewhere, Hamhuis chose to sign for less for the opportunity to play for a Cup contender in the province in which he was born.  Hamhuis has topped 30 points just once in his career (38 in 2005-06) as he is known more for his solid defensive play than his ability to produce points.  That being said, he moves to an offensive-minded club in Vancouver and should see a boost in point production.  A return to his career-year numbers would not be a surprise.

Others affected:  Hamhuis is not the highest paid defenseman on the Canucks to be the 5th man on the depth chart, so he has to bump someone out of the top-4.  The popular belief is Kevin Bieksa, who the Canucks may have to end up trading anyways this summer to stay below the cap.

Olli Jokinen (Calgary Flames - 2 years, $6 million)

In what was the most shocking - and puzzling - move of the day, Olli Jokinen proves that Calgary Flames GM Darryl Sutter may be losing his mind afterall.  Jokinen returns to Calgary after a short and uninspiring stint in Cowtown that ended in the Flames dumping him off to the New York Rangers for the equally frustrating Ales Kotalik.  Jokinen only scored 4 goals in 26 games for the Rangers, so there is little reason to believe he deserves this contract or will return to the form he showed in Florida.  Perhaps Sutter is a glutton for punishment, perhaps he has lost his marbles.  Whatever the reason for this deal Calgary Flames fans are not too happy and deservedly so.

Others affected:  Calgary Flames fans.  Calgary is a great hockey city that deserves more than they are getting at the moment.  Ownership had better be careful because the way things are being run out there, the Flames could be heading toward Edmonton Oilers territory (as in, no-one wants to play there) and fast.

Alex Tanguay (Calgary Flames - 1 year, $1.7 million)

altBringing back another former Flames player, Alex Tanguay returns with hopes of re-igniting the success he had with Jarome Iginla back in 2006-07 and 2007-08.  Based on the dollar amount this is a relatively low-risk move for the club which make the deal palatable.  Tanguay had a brutual year in Tampa Bay where he was frustrated at not being given enough opportunity to be an offensive presence.  Look for a rebound season of sorts for Tanguay, probably in the 50-60 point range, which at least makes him fantasy relevant again.

Others affected:  Jarome Iginla gets a decent playmaker who he's had success with before so that should be a positive. 

Colby Armstrong (Toronto Maple Leafs - 3 years, $9 million)

Keeping true to his plan, Brian Burke acquired some sandpaper by signing the 6-2, 195 lb Armstrong to a 3-year deal.  Armstrong has a penchant for hitting everything and anything and according to Burke he will likely ply his trade on the 3rd line in Toronto.  At 27 years old Armstrong is right in his prime and optimistic Leafs fans may be hoping he could break out offensively, but he is not stranger to opportunity having played in both with Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh and in a top-6 role in Atlanta without much success.

Kurtis Foster (Edmonton Oilers - 2 years, 3.6 million)

Foster broke out offensively in 2009-10 with the Tampa Bay Lighting, scoring 42 points in 71 games.  He has a blistering shot and the opportunity for more minutes and a larger role on a rebuilding Edmonton team is what lured him to sign.  Expect Foster to play an important role on the powerplay with the Oilers and he should see more icetime in total as a result of being a top-4 defenseman.  He's no Mike Green but Foster should be good for 40-45 points and might be a decent buy-low candidate in keeper leagues where owners are still not sold on his abilities.

Others affected:  Sheldon Souray leaving Edmonton was already a foregone conclusion but the signing of Foster might be the nail in the coffin.

Chris Mason (Atlanta Thrashers - 2 years, $3.7 million)

Put me down on the list of people who thought that Mason would likely end up either in a tandem-role or in Europe for the 2010-11 season.  Instead, Mason gets a 2-year deal in Atlanta where it is quite possible that he will take most of the workload for a young Thrashers team.

Others affected:  Ondrej Pavelec is still considered to be a potential #1 goaltender and he showed glimpses of that potential last season, but the Thrashers are clearly hoping Mason can be their #1 for the next few years.  This put Pavelec owners who thought he may get his big chance this season back in wait-and-see mode.

Antero Niittymaki (San Jose Sharks - 2 years, $4 million)

Perhaps the biggest winner on Thursday was Niittymaki who goes from the Tampa Bay Lightning to the San Jose Sharks.  The Sharks have brought Niittymaki in to be the starter and the switch of teams alone may propel him into 40-win territory.

Others affected:  Thomas Greiss would have hoped for an opportunity to claim the starters role, but this is still positive news for the German.  Greiss should start more games in 2010-11 than he has in the past, probably around 25 if Niittymaki plays well and with the potential to steal the starters role if things don't go as planned.

Comments (4)Add Comment
can1jim
can1jim
August 04, 2010
156.34.82.161
...

Can't see Nittymaki making the difference in SJ. Letting Nabakov walk and replacing him with Nitty and Griess seems to be a huge risk. Bet they wish they had kept Kipper so many years ago instead of Toskala!

rclaveau
rclaveau
August 08, 2010
154.5.150.109
...

I can't see SJ banking everything on Niitty. I expect to see another split workload with Greiss unless one of them really steps up their game. Even if one of them does, that'll make more of a difference in the playoffs and then perhaps for next year. I'll wait and see before looking seriously at either of them.

Ray Irwin
Ray Irwin
August 08, 2010
207.216.225.61
...

I agree with your assessment, rclaveau, but both goalie's value for 2010-11 in fantasy leagues largely depends on the league format.

If you're in a 12-team single-year Yahoo league that starts one goaltender, then sure, both Niitty and Greiss could be passed over in initial drafts.

But for any owner in a keeper league with any depth, both goaltenders hold value. Of course Greiss figures to have the better long-term potential and neither are locks but if you can consider a 20-team keeper or dynasty league with 1 or 2 goalie starts then you can easily see why owners will be looking seriously at both of them.

For the record, I'm not a big Niittymaki fan.

rclaveau
rclaveau
August 09, 2010
209.53.139.61
...

Agreed that Greiss is the one to pick over Niity, and I agree that in a deep enough league both are prospects. There are plenty of better split-shift goalies out there though, I'd be inclined to pick one of them over either of these two. Then again, there are plenty of 1-year contracts for starters and a very uncertain future for most of them (Turco comes to mind). This warrants some more thought.

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Last Updated ( Saturday, 03 July 2010 10:47 )  

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