The wait is finally over in the Ilya Kovalchuk sweepstakes!!
New Jersey will enjoy the services of one of the league's elite snipers for the rest of the season and its clear that his stay in the swamp will last only as long as the Devils' playoff run. The notion that Kovalchuk is a rental may be partially because of his astronomical salary demands and the extreme unlikeliness that New Jersey GM Lou Lamoriello would ever shell out that much for a single player. No, the evidence of his rental status is evident in the trade itself, which breaks down as follows:
To New Jersey: Ilya Kovalchuk (UFA in 2010-11), defenseman Anssi Salmela (RFA in 2010-11) and Atlanta's second round pick in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft
To Atlanta: Defenseman Johnny Oduya ($3.5 million in 2010-11 and $4 million in 2011-12), rookie forward Niclas Bergfors (RFA in 2010-11), currently suspended OHL forward Patrice Cormier, and New Jersey's first and second round picks in the 2010 Entry Draft
The clear winner for this year is New Jersey as they add a superstar forward that can control the game by himself to a squad that has all the tools to compete in the wide open Eastern Conference. Fantasy hockey owners can also rejoice as Kovalchuk can now expect some offensive support from his teammates and any defensive mistakes he may make can be overlooked with the help of the man between the pipes; Martin Brodeur.
Also, Salmela returns to New Jersey where fans were upset to see him go in a 2009 deadline deal that saw the Devils acquire Niclas Havelid.
The Thrashers, on the other hand, may need to time to see if moving forward with a deal prior to the deadlines worked in their favour. Oduya looks to be a salary shed for New Jersey and should find significant ice time difficult to come by in Atlanta, while Bergfors made a splash in December before cooling down in the new year with only one point since December 31st. Everyone knows about Cormier, but for all the wrong reasons and the two picks may end up being late in their respective rounds.
But lets break this down a little more for all the fantasy implications...
Everyone remaining in New Jersey benefits from this move as Kovalchuk will immediately make opposing teams hard pressed to find appropriate defensive matchups for a far better balanced team. Kovalchuk himself should continue to produce at his usual clip, and may even get a slight bump with the excitement of a new team. He'd be someone to target early for a playoff pool as he may be slightly underrated from his previous, short playoff experience.
Atlanta suffers across the board and this might be putting it mildly! The goalies will lose more often, the goals will be harder to come by and the stands will be much emptier. It was reported that Kovalchuk turned down a 10-year, $101 million deal and a 7-year, $70 million deal, essentially forcing his way out of Atlanta.
Maxim Afinogenov will fade like a reed in the wind as the joy of playing was sucked away with this deal... Evander Kane will not be able to shoulder an increased offensive load, especially as the season wears on... Niclas Bergfors won't suddenly find his offense now that he is out of the swamp, and while he has nice upside, it won't be apparent in the mess that is now the Thrashers. The defensive core will hurt any fantasy team's plus/minus category and should see less points overall.
If there was ever a time to buy low on Atlanta players, now is the time, but mostly for keeper and dynasty leagues. This may also be a risky proposition with the future outlook in Atlanta, but without risk there is little reward. That must be the motto of the Thrashers, because there is a whole lot of risk in acquiring this package for a superstar like Kovalchuk and the reward may not be enough to keep Atlanta fans interested.
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