If you remember, some time ago, I did an article on the odds of being a draft re-entry. The article looked at research that suggested those originally ranked unfavorably by NHL's Central Scouting in their original draft year had a better chance of being draft re-entries than those who were ranked highly only to be passed over. It plunged into the belief that those being selected after originally being passed over, were previously after thoughts to be drafted in the first place. Check out the article if you want a refresher.
However, the article only loosely touched on the upward trend of NHL teams selecting more and more second and third year eligible players. This is especially true since the inception of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which gives NHL teams two years to sign CHL players regardless of their age when drafted. After talking with a colleague about this recently, it really made me want to do more research on this trend, particularly from a perspective of the entire CHL, and not just the OHL.
Let's look at the following chart. On the chart we find the draft re-entries from 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 (the five draft years post lockout). As well, we find the draft re-entries from the year 2000 (a randomly chosen pre lockout year to serve as a comparison).
| NHL Draft Year | OHL | WHL | QMJHL |
| 2009 | Matt Hackett | Tyler Shattock | Nick Petersen |
| Jaroslav Janus | Darcy Kuemper | Mike Hoffman | |
| Total = 22 | Matt Kennedy | Brandon Kozun | Nicola Riopel |
| David Kolomatis | Marek Viedensky | Dave Labrecque | |
| Lane MacDermid | Gaelan Patterson | Ashton Bernard | |
| Michael Pelech | Maxime Legault | ||
| Corey Cowick | |||
| Scott Timmins | |||
| Eric Wellwood | |||
| Jordan Nolan | |||
| Kyle Neuber | |||
| 2008 | Andrew Campbell | Zack Smith | Jason Demers |
| Matt Martin | Colin Long | ||
| Total = 12 | Justin Azevedo | Dale Weise | |
| Mike Murphy | Brett Regner | ||
| Justin DiBenedetto | Ryley Grantham | ||
| Jordan Bendfeld | |||
| 2007 | Mitch Fadden | David Perron | |
| Mark Santorelli | Brett Morrison | ||
| Total = 7 | Carson McMillan | ||
| Frazer McLaren | |||
| Dan Gendur | |||
| 2006 | Peter Aston | Ashton Rome | Maxime Lacroix |
| Dane Crowley | Olivier Magnan | ||
| Total = 9 | Eric Hunter | Andrew MacDonald | |
| Derek Dorsett | Matt Marquardt | ||
| 2005 | Luciano Aquino | Joe Barnes | Dany Roussin |
| Nicholas Tuzzolino | Masi Marjamaki | Jordan Lavalee | |
| Total = 12 | Adam Dennis | Matt Keetley | Stanislav Lascek |
| Marek Kvapil | Riley Emmerson | ||
| Danny Syvret | |||
| 2000 | Justin Papineau | Matt Pettinger | Mathieu Chouinard |
| Michael Rupp | David Morriset | Ramzi Abid | |
| Total = 25 | Tim Branham | Kurt Sauer | Brandon Reid |
| Levente Szuper | Darcy Hordichuk | Guillaume Lefebvre | |
| Ryan Van Buskirk | Nathan Barrett | Jonathan Gauthier | |
| Mike Danton | Micki DuPont | Simon Gamache | |
| Brent Gauvreau | Tim Smith | Lauri Kinos | |
| Jason Maleyko | |||
| Brian Passmore | |||
| Chad Wiseman |
Alright, so let's examine these results. The first thing you probably say to yourself is, "where the heck did this preconception about increasing overage draftees come from?" In the year 2000, 25 second or third year eligible players were drafted from the CHL, a higher total than any of the five post lockout years. But before we go crazy, be sure to take into account three facts about the draft pre lockout (aka in the year 2000):
1. Players could opt out of the NHL Draft (or fail to opt in) if they felt like their season hadn't gone according to plan because of injury, disappointment, what be it.
2. The Draft was nine rounds, not seven. Whether this changed drafting philosophy or not, is hard to say. Maybe teams rolled the dice on second and third year eligible guys because they knew they had a few other draft picks to play with.
3. Several of those 25 were second time draftees, not guys passed over in their original draft years.
So while on paper, it looks like the preconception was proved false, in actuality it appears to be true if you believe that 2009 is part of an upward trend. Because the 2009 NHL Draft had 60 less players selected (roughly) than 2000, we can say that it had a higher percentage of second and third year CHL Draft selections. Also, not a single one of the 22 selected in 2009 were second time draftees. That means NHL teams took notice of "breakout" seasons more last year than in the past.
Again, this all depends on how you treat 2009. Is it an outlier, a good year for marked improvement by second and third year eligible players? Or is it the drafting strategy of the future?
In case you hadn't guessed by my odd fascination with the subject, I truly believe it to be the way of the future. Thanks in part to organization and contract number limits, teams are less interested in taking huge gambles on raw talent with serious flaws. Not when they can wait another year (or two) and have a chance to draft that same player after marked improvement.
Let's breakdown the options of it all and prove, essentially, why the strategy of drafting second and third year eligible players from the Canadian Hockey League is a smart idea.
If an NHL team drafts a second year eligible player, they have the following options:
1. Sign the player and play them in the NHL.
2. Send the player back to the CHL for two more seasons (including an overage year).
3. Send the player back to the CHL for one more season, sign them and play them in the AHL/ECHL the next season.
4. Send the player back to the CHL for one more season, allow them to sign an ATO with an AHL team the next season to test their pro potential.
If an NHL team drafts a third year eligible player, they have the following options:
1. Sign the player and play them in the NHL.
2. Sign the player and play them in the AHL/ECHL.
3. Send the player back to the CHL for their overage season, Sign them and play them in the AHL/ECHL the next season.
4. Send the player back to the CHL for their overage season, allow them to sign an ATO with an AHL team the next season to test their pro potential.
5. Allow them to play two seasons in the AHL/ECHL on an ATO to see what pro potential they may have.
As an NHL General Manager, using this strategy allows you to effectively cheat the drafting system. You can test the pro ability of your draft picks without having to actually sign them to an NHL deal (and wasting a 50 contact spot). Best of all you'd still keep their rights and have the exclusive opportunity to sign them if they do well. And if the struggle with the transition, as most CHL players do, you can release them without wasting a contract. Contrast this with drafting a first year eligible (born January 1-September 15) player from the CHL. You'll have to make a decision about signing them BEFORE they're professionally tested...save maybe a handful of AHL playoff games following the conclusion of their CHL season.
If it comes to drafting in rounds 6 or 7, unless I'm enamored with a first year eligible still left on the board, I'm going with a second or third year player. Roll the dice, see what you can come up with, and at least you'll be able to see what your gamble can do at the professional level BEFORE you have to sign them.
For those fantasy junkies out there (aka the ones who read this site), it's important to know the names of these players for keeper league reasons. Just look at some of the guys on that above chart from the recent years. Jason Demers, Matt Martin, Andrew MacDonald, and David Perron already making large contributions at the NHL level.
As always, feel free to read the blog over at OHL Prospects. Thoughts on Owen Sound, Brampton, Peterborough, and Ottawa in recent weeks.
Would love to hear your thoughts on this debate too.
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